Saturday, March 04, 2006

Calling Peak - About Now

Stuart Staniford sums up the evidence, agreeing with many other intelligent observers that the peak of oil production is upon us:

Whether May 2005 will stand as the highest ever month of production or some month in 2006 or even 2007 rises a little higher is certainly hard to call.

Note that he suggests that some month could rise "a little higher" than May 2005 production. This is inconsequential as it represents some random fluctuation - just noise - in the peak production period which will soon transition to a decline.

It is not logical to think that capitalism can survive this. Capitalism is predicated on future increasing of return-on-investment which will not be forthcoming. Alternatives to replace oil will be wonderful for a post-capitalist civilization that will emerge in the coming years, however, the massive infrastructure transformation cost required to preserve the current economy will not be possible during this period of rapidly increasing energy costs.

I do not view these conclusions as at all pessimistic. I believe that we will view the late 20th century and the first six years of the 21st as the "bad old days" when we are gathering around the tribal campfire in the coming years.

Humans will once again be human.

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Blogger Orikinla Osinachi. said...

One fine day, America will not need to import foreign oil.

God bless.

7:25 PM  
Blogger Ryvr said...

More accurately, we will be unable to. Demand is likely to begin exceeding supply at at accelerating rate this year, and we will once again experience some of the joys that humanity had before oil.


7:35 PM  

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